Why initial payment abandonment can be higher
When Lightning payments are first introduced on a platform, it's usual to see a high number of initiated payments that are abandoned. In the majority of cases, this behavior is attributed to users exploring a new payment option to understand how it works.
Users may trigger a Lightning payment out of curiosity, but keep returning to complete the checkout with their preplanned payment method, as the urge to proceed with a payment is stronger than the desire to discover a new payment method in real time. Users tend to keep the information on the new payment method to explore it deeper afterwards.
As users become more familiar with Lightning and gain confidence using it, completion rates improve. Over time, Lightning payments scale within the platform's payment mix, supported by both returning and new users.
Lightning adoption with minimal On-Chain migration
Commonly, once Lightning payments reach maturity within a merchant's payment solutions, only around 5% of on-chain Bitcoin transactions appear to migrate to Lightning. Indicating that Lightning adoption is not completely replacing existing on-chain Bitcoin activity, instead, it recalls a broader shift in user payment behavior.
In the most expected scenario, the majority of users come from Lightning-enabled fintech and crypto apps such as Wallet of Satoshi, Coinbase, Kraken, Strike, and many others. Showing clear evidence of new user segments entering the payment flow. It is also expected that part of the volume will come from users migrating from traditional payment methods such as cards or e-wallets.
While there's no standard share on the final expected distribution, as each merchant behaves differently, user preference for Lightning remains clear, even as on-chain Bitcoin usage remains mostly unaffected.